Nouveau regard sur les déterminants de l’appui à l’indépendance du Québec

The article attempts to measure possible changes in the structure of public opinion towards Quebec independence. More specifically, we compare two theoretical models that have been central to our understanding of support for independence: the rational choice model associated with the prospective costs and benefits of independence, and the sociopsychological model which highlights the grievances and demands that Quebec has toward the Canadian regime. Our study also allows us to assess the relevance of these models across generations between 2014 and 2024 and to consider new contemporary explanatory factors. Overall, our results suggest a surprising stability in the importance of the different factors considered for explaining support for Quebec independence. Populist, nativist, and authoritarian attitudes also provide additional, albeit limited, explanatory power.