TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change on Stream Flow and Runoff in Rur Basin, Germany
AU - Shukla, Saurabh
AU - Meshesha, Tesfa Worku
AU - Sen, Indra S.
AU - Bol, Roland
AU - Bogena, Heye
AU - Wang, Junye
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on hydrology is the key to sustainable water resource management. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of LULC change on the runoff in the Rur basin, Germany. The SWAT model was calibrated against the observed data of stream flow and runoff at three sites (Stah, Linnich, and Monschau) between 2000 and 2010 and validated between 2011 and 2015. The performance of the hydrological model was assessed by using statistical parameters such as the coefficient of determination (R2), p-value, r-value, and percentage bias (PBAIS). Our analysis reveals that the average R2 values for model calibration and validation were 0.68 and 0.67 (n = 3), respectively. The impacts of three change scenarios on stream runoff were assessed by replacing the partial forest with urban settlements, agricultural land, and grasslands compared to the 2006 LULC map. The SWAT model captured, overall, the spatio-temporal patterns and effects of LULC change on the stream runoffs despite the heterogeneous runoff responses related to the variable impacts of the different LULC. The results show that LULC change from deciduous forest to urban settlements, agricultural land, or grasslands increased the overall basin runoff by 43%, 14%, and 4%, respectively.
AB - Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on hydrology is the key to sustainable water resource management. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of LULC change on the runoff in the Rur basin, Germany. The SWAT model was calibrated against the observed data of stream flow and runoff at three sites (Stah, Linnich, and Monschau) between 2000 and 2010 and validated between 2011 and 2015. The performance of the hydrological model was assessed by using statistical parameters such as the coefficient of determination (R2), p-value, r-value, and percentage bias (PBAIS). Our analysis reveals that the average R2 values for model calibration and validation were 0.68 and 0.67 (n = 3), respectively. The impacts of three change scenarios on stream runoff were assessed by replacing the partial forest with urban settlements, agricultural land, and grasslands compared to the 2006 LULC map. The SWAT model captured, overall, the spatio-temporal patterns and effects of LULC change on the stream runoffs despite the heterogeneous runoff responses related to the variable impacts of the different LULC. The results show that LULC change from deciduous forest to urban settlements, agricultural land, or grasslands increased the overall basin runoff by 43%, 14%, and 4%, respectively.
KW - LULC change
KW - SWAT model
KW - basin
KW - runoff
KW - water resource
KW - watershed modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163929684&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/su15129811
DO - 10.3390/su15129811
M3 - Journal Article
AN - SCOPUS:85163929684
VL - 15
JO - Sustainability (Switzerland)
JF - Sustainability (Switzerland)
IS - 12
M1 - 9811
ER -