A probabilistic hazard assessment for cyanobacterial toxins accounting for regional geography and water body trophic status

Under climate change scenarios freshwater eutrophication is expected to increase, and with it the occurrence of cyanobacterial toxin-producing harmful algal blooms. In the current study, microcystin toxin occurrence data from literature sources and a long-term provincial monitoring program were used to conduct a probabilistic hazard assessment for Alberta, Canada. The large temporal and spatial range of data makes Alberta a model system for identifying regional geography and water body trophic status factors driving toxin concentrations. Environmental exposure distributions of microcystin concentrations were plotted and used to identify the likelihood of a given sample exceeding water guideline values as a function of regional geography, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentration. This process identified regions with intensive cultivation and those most prone to water deficits associated with climate change to be most associated with exceedances of regulatory guideline values. Elevated phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were also drivers of toxin occurrence. This assessment can be used to identify water bodies of greatest risk to human and animal populations from cyanotoxins and thereby inform regulators as to most effective monitoring strategies.